Friday, April 29, 2016

Chris Hogan: Born to Be Here

March 11, 2016



After sitting out the first two days of free agency (per usual), the Patriots made their first big move of the offseason, signing Buffalo Bills restricted free agent Chris Hogan to a 3 year, $12 million deal on Friday.

Anyone who knows anything at all about the Patriots, Bill Belichick, and/or Chris Hogan had to know this move was coming as soon as Hogan became available. Belichick used to dream about people like Chris Hogan when he was a little boy. Belichick has been looking for Chris Hogan his entire life. Without having played a single snap in Patriot colors, it feels like he's been here forever, as we've seen pieces of Hogan on the field before. What do we know about Tom Brady's new target, and what can we expect from him on the field?

Tale of the Tape:

Chris Hogan
6'1"
220 lbs
4th Season (Buffalo Bills, Monmouth University/Penn State University)

  • He's white. Let's get that out of the way early. We all know Belichick has an affinity for white receivers, and he is now one step closer to turning his skill position players into a reasonable facsimile of the '86 Celtics. Every white slot receiver in the last 10 drafts has been linked to the Patriots because of the successes of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Hogan isn't a pure slot guy. He's bigger and sturdier than Welker and Edelman, but lacks their elite quickness. He'll be able to line up at the X and Z positions and gives Josh McDaniels the versatility he loves so much. (Hogan lineage: Welker, Edelman, Amendola, Hogan)
  • He comes from the AFC East. Hogan had three mildly productive seasons in Buffalo (87 catches, 959 yards), showing slow and steady improvement each year. He had a particularly successful game during the last Bills-Pats game with 6 catches for 95 yards, both season highs. One of those catches went for 42, showing an ability to get north/south as opposed to the east/west/east/fake west/east again/west routine we normally see from our white guys. Ever since Welker used to drive Belichick crazy in Miami, he seems to subscribe to the "if you can't beat 'em, sign 'em" school of thought. (Hogan lineage: Welker, Scott Chandler, Hogan)
  • He's an underdog. Hogan plays hard because he's not supposed to be here. He's not a particularly fast white guy from a small college playing receiver in the NFL. He's not a guy who's going to take plays off or come late to practice because it's snowing out. (Hogan lineage: Brady, Welker, Edelman, Amendola, Hogan)
  • He played Lacrosse at Penn State. To be honest, I think this is what swayed Belichick more than anything else. Belichick loves lacrosse. He loves lacrosse players. He's often seeing playing pitch and catch with his sons on the field after games. I'm sure when he retires, he'll go coach in the MLL and win a bunch of rings over there. The Pats used to keep this kid named Buddy Farnham on the Practice Squad and I'm almost certain it's just because he played high school lacrosse. Always pulled for Buddy Farnham. (Hogan lineage: Farnham, Hogan).
Best case scenario? Chris Hogan becomes Wayne Chrebet for 2-3 years. The kid can play, as evidenced by his relative torching of the Patriots in November. He's got some years under his belt, and now finally has a competent offensive coach and quarterback to throw him the ball. If he can wrap his head around the offense, we could see numbers like this: 65 catches, 650 yards, 3 TDs. Let's actually hope it doesn't get much higher than that, because that probably means Edelman broke his foot or something.