Barring an injunction, Brady is slated to miss the following four games: On the road in Arizona followed by three consecutive home games against Miami, Houston, and Buffalo. While it's easy to say the Patriots will finish that stretch at 4-0 or 3-1 because, hey, it's the Patriots, that's both over simplifying things to a ridiculous degree and also why the rest of America hates New England. We have a limited sample size with Garoppolo. He played mop-up duty semi effectively in the "the Patriots aren't good anymore" bowl in Kansas City, going 6-7 for 70 yards in garbage time against a team that had long since taken their foot off the gas pedal. Later that year, in the season finale at home against Buffalo, he went 10-17 for 90 yards and chipped in an additional 16 yards on the ground. He spent a lot of time that game looking like a chicken who recently got his head chopped off and was told to play quarterback. Garoppolo often appeared to panic under pressure and break off his reads when the pocket got hot.
Let's take a look at the challenges the first four opponents will bring to Jimmy G and the Pats.
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Opening in Arizona, on Sunday Night Football, is a tough draw with or without Brady. The Cardinals have one of the most dynamic, athletic secondaries in the NFL, led by Patrick Peterson and swiss army defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. They were a top 5 defense in terms of yards allowed before adding Chandler Jones this off-season, who will certainly be additionally motivated to get after his old team. Aside from the challenges the defense presents, the Cardinals offense is also loaded. The Cards had the leagues top rated offense in 2015. Asking essentially a rookie Quarterback to carry the team in a shootout on opening night is a tall order.
The home game against Miami appears to be the easiest game on the opening slate. The Dolphins still employ Ryan Tannenhill at Quarterback, don't have a viable rushing threat, and are the Dolphins. They will present Garoppolo with problems defensively, primarily with a pash rush that goes from the inside out, led by certified sociopath and All-Pro Ndamukong Suh. Garoppolo's sample size as a starter is small, and the results are a mixed bag. When he played Buffalo in the 2015 Week 17 Superbowl, he sometimes looked panicky when facing an interior rush. He got off his reads quickly and relied on his feet too often to make plays. Miami can get after you up the middle, and if the O-Line doesn't improve significantly under Dante Scarnechia, it won't matter who the Pats play.
Houston has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Miami. Question marks at the QB and RB positions, strong defense led by an All-Pro Defensive Lineman. His name is JJ Watt, the best defensive player in football and the only NFL player working out this off season. He'll be ready for this game, also nationally televised on Sunday Night Football. Historically the Patriots have taken JJ Watt out of the game with double teams and a steady dose of handing the ball off. This could be a game where the Pats ask Garoppolo to hand the ball of 35 times, but the Houston offense appears to have improved this off-season with the additions of Brock Osweiller and Lamar Miller to go along with Nuk Hopkins-don't laugh, but the game could turn into a shootout in which JJ gets to pin his ears back and get after the QB.
Finally, the Pats finish out the suspension gauntlet against Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. Rex Ryan teams always play New England tough, and that's with Brady under center. Asking a new quarterback to recognize and diagnose Ryan's exotic blitz packages will be one of the more difficult tests of the young season. The final three games being at home will help the young quarterback, where he won't have to deal with the potential for crowd noise impacting his play calling and the pass rush.
The Patriots won't be able to roll over any of these teams, and while much can change with the NFL draft and preseason injuries, the Pats will have their work cut out for them with Brady on the bench for a quarter of the season. Getting Garoppolo first team reps throughout the summer and keeping the other big dogs healthy will be paramount in keeping the Pats on track in the early going.
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